America’s energy future

Robert J. Samuelson is usually a grouch when it comes to economics and energy. That includes his harsh skepticism on the ability to do something about global warming.

He’s actually rather optimistic about America’s energy future, but he notes that renewables will not be as big a part of our energy future as environmentalists would want. Coal, natural gas and oil will still be important parts of the energy equation.

Big geothermal test

The potential of geothermal energy is incredible, but we’ll see soon whether we’re making real progress in this area.

Geothermal energy developers plan to pump 24 million gallons of water into the side of a dormant volcano in central Oregon this summer to demonstrate technology they hope will give a boost to a green energy sector that has yet to live up to its promise.

They hope the water comes back to the surface fast enough and hot enough to create cheap, clean electricity that isn’t dependent on sunny skies or stiff breezes — without shaking the earth and rattling the nerves of nearby residents.

Renewable energy has been held back by cheap natural gas, weak demand for power and lack of political concern over global warming. Efforts to use the earth’s heat to generate power, known as geothermal energy, have been further hampered by technical problems and worries that tapping it can cause earthquakes.

Even so, the federal government, Google and other investors are interested enough to bet $43 million on the Oregon project.

Geothermal can be the ultimate example of clean energy, so many environmentalists are excited about this technology.

Obama rejects fast track for Keystone pipeline

This pipeline has become a political football.

President Obama has rejected fast-tracking approval of the TransCanada Keystone XL pipeline, turning aside Republican demands that he sign off on the deal they claim will create 20,000 new jobs and strengthen American energy security.

In a statement Wednesday afternoon, Obama said that he received a recommendation from Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton earlier today recommending that the application be denied.

“This announcement is not a judgment on the merits of the pipeline, but the arbitrary nature of a deadline that prevented the State Department from gathering the information necessary to approve the project and protect the American people,” Obama said. “I’m disappointed that Republicans in Congress forced this decision, but it does not change my administration’s commitment to American-made energy that creates jobs and reduces our dependence on oil.”

The Canadian tar sands are very controversial in the environmental community, so it will fascinating to see how all this plays out.

Economy is coming back

The US economy is definitely coming back and it will be interesting to see how that affects environmental issues. The unemployment rate is coming down and we see things like new car sales steadily improving. In November, the automakers reported great sales results, and that was particularly true of the Big Three. With GM, Ford and Chrysler doing well, that has a ripple effect throughout the entire economy. Suppliers get busy, more workers work, and then that translates into more consumer activity.

For environmentalists, this will change the conversation if it continues. During a recession, it becomes harder to deal with issues like global warming, pollution and conservation as people are worried about jobs. Green energy investments should be a priority, but some fight them and argue we should focus on things like oil pipelines. If the economy improves, it makes it easier to argue for longer term investments that can help the environment.

The car industry offers an interesting example. Surprisingly, the Obama administration was able to push through tougher fuel economy standards even during a recession. High gas prices definitely helped. But car sales were slow as people flocked to used cars, as you can see from high used car prices in 2011 that were also tied to tight supplies. And that’s one reason new car sales are now doing well. The economy is getting better so more people are looking, but new cars are more competitive with high used car prices. Also, people get more for their trade-ins, so that used Peugeot 206 can get a great price on a trade-in.

The auto recovery is leading a broader economic rebound, so get ready to reset the environmental discussions.

Cutting real estate costs with solar

One of the more interesting trends in solar involves companies that will install solar panels on residential or commercial real estate with little or no upfront costs to the owner. How can they do that? The idea is simple – you have a situation where the combination of subsidies and the solar power will significantly reduce an owner’s electricity bills. The savings stream can then be used to pay off the costs of the solar panel upgrades.

The plunging costs of solar power are making this trend even more powerful. There is some controversy, as some suspect that the Chinese are dumping panels in the US below cost, so it will be interesting to see if the trend continues on this pace, but either way prices will keep coming down. It’s just a matter of how fast.

Many businesses and consumers are catching on, though again it remains to be seen as to how fast these systems will be implemented. For many, this becomes a real investment opportunity that changes the calculation around certain real estate investments. If you’re looking for investment property, you of course want every advantage you can think of. Every cost saving needs to be considered. Of course you’ll be looking for a bmv investment as you want to save on the initial purchase price, but ancillary costs matter as well. Energy savings should get thorough investigation. This also applies if you’re seeking overseas properties, as many countries are jumping on the renewable energy bandwagon.

The bottom line is that solar power and other renewables will grow even faster when there are economic incentives. And those that see the incentives and their applications first can make profits by acting on them.

Volt sales start to pick up

Chevy Volt sales have been sluggish this year and have not met expectations. This is disappointing for those of us who want to see plug-in hybrids take off.

That may be changing as GM finally starts to promote the Volt more heavily with a commercial advertising campaign. Sales increased substantially in October, so perhaps the tide is turning. That said, one month means little and we’ll have to see if this continues.

Mitt Romney flip flops on global warming

Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney speaks at a town hall meeting campaign stop in Manchester, New Hampshire October 28, 2011. REUTERS/Brian Snyder (UNITED STATES – Tags: POLITICS ELECTIONS)

Mitt Romney is well-known as someone who will shamelessly change his position for political expediency, and now he’s applying his famous mental gymnastics to the issue of global warming.

The details are here, but basically he’s realizing that his rational statement on climate change in the past are not doing him any good in a GOP primary dominated by voters who hate science.

Green promotional tools

We’re definitely seeing a transformation as electronic communications replace things we’ve been used to our entire lives. eBooks are becoming more and more popular, so we’re seeing fewer paper books sold. Amazon is driving the change, and it’s one of the reasons that Borders is a thing of the past.

Email has been around for a long time. Combine that with texting, Tweeting and Facebook, and most of our communications are now done electronically. The Post Office is struggling for many reasons, but one is that personal mail correspondence has been replaced by electronic correspondence.

We’re also seeing these changes with promotional materials. Go to things like car shows, and you’ll see that the handouts to the press are now done with flash drives as opposed to printed brochures. That said, printing services are still popular as having a brochure in hand with great photos and relevant information is still a very effective tool. So when the public is at a car show, you see printed brochures still used to promote the vehicles.

So things are changing, and that can be good for the environment, but that doesn’t mean old methods go away completely.

Blow to climate change deniers

This is pretty interesting, as all of the global warming skeptics will now have to face this study from a former skeptic.

Climate change deniers thought they had an ally in Richard Muller, a popular physics professor at UC Berkeley.

Muller didn’t reject climate science per se, but he was a skeptic, and a convenient one for big polluters and conservative anti-environmentalists — until Muller put their money where his mouth was, and launched the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, in part with a grant from the Charles G. Koch foundation.

After extensive study, he’s concluded that the existing science was right all along — that the earth’s surface is warming, at an accelerating rate. But instead of second-guessing themselves, his erstwhile allies of convenience are now abandoning him.

“When we began our study, we felt that skeptics had raised legitimate issues, and we didn’t know what we’d find,” Muller wrote in a Friday Wall Street Journal op-ed. “Our results turned out to be close to those published by prior groups. We think that means that those groups had truly been very careful in their work, despite their inability to convince some skeptics of that. They managed to avoid bias in their data selection, homogenization and other corrections. Global warming is real. Perhaps our results will help cool this portion of the climate debate.”

This does not speak to the issue of whether humans are causing the warming, but it’s another persuasive set of data on this issue of warming itself.

Fact check on global warming and scientific consensus

A number of politicians, particularly many Republicans, are questioning whether global warming is being caused by human activity. Some are now claiming that scientists are split on the issue. Politifact decided to check up on these ridiculous claims:

To begin with, a 2007 report from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s leading international scientific body on climate science, states: “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. The observed widespread warming of the atmosphere and ocean, together with ice mass loss, support the conclusion that it is extremely unlikely that global climate change of the past 50 years can be explained without external forcing, and very likely that it is not due to known natural causes alone.” (External forcing refers to anything that changes the climate that is outside of the normal climate system.)

A 2009 report from the U.S. Global Change Research Programreached a similar conclusion: “Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities.”

Current climate change research was reviewed again this year by the National Research Council and the National Academy of Sciences. The committee it assembled concluded that global warming poses significant risksand is happening primarily because of greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. It rejected the idea that those findings are in any way questionable.

“Although the scientific process is always open to new ideas and results, the fundamental causes and consequences of climate change have been established by many years of scientific research, are supported by many different lines of evidence, and have stood firm in the face of careful examination, repeated testing, and the rigorous evaluation of alternative theories and explanations,” the committee’s report said.

The scientific consensus on global warming is clear.